Is it deadly to believe Donald Trump?

August 9: On This Day In 2020

Yesterday we showed that—according to Trump's own beliefs on violent crime—his policies made America deadlier. But more specifically, could it be that following Trump's advice is hazardous to one's health? The data would seem to strongly indicate Yes.

OTDI 2020, the U.S. surpassed five million cases of Covid. But Covid's deadly impact was not evenly distributed throughout the country.

The U.S. government reported death totals by state, adjusted for the age of the population. In other words, if Florida had more deaths because they had more senior citizens, they stripped out that effect so each state could be apples-to-apples.

What they found was remarkable. And upsetting.

In 2021, they measured the # of Covid deaths-per-resident. Of the 25 hardest-hit, most-deadly states, how many would you guess voted for Trump when he first ran?

No, seriously, take a guess...

An astounding 23 of the 25 deadliest Covid states

voted for Donald Trump.

And of the 9 least-deadly states, how many voted for Trump? Zero.

The average death rate of Trump states

was 56% higher than of the others.

So why was it so deadly to live in a Trump state? There may be many factors. But one which seems obvious is that Trump generally laughed at the sensible ways people could choose to protect themselves from Covid. He organized rallies which discouraged social distancing. He mocked mask-wearers. He smeared the infectious disease scientists and their advice they gave. And even though he helped get the vaccines produced, he seemed to almost discourage anybody from using them.

GOP states listened to Trump. As Brookings put it, "For COVID-19 vaccinations, party affiliation matters more than race and ethnicity." So, surveys showed that GOP voters were far less likely to wear masks. And they were far less likely to get vaccinated.

Thus, it's not surprising they were far more likely to die.

A recent update: A Politico survey last year found that Republicans are still five times more likely than Democrats to say Covid vaccines are unsafe. And it's no longer just Covid. Republicans are much more likely to fear all vaccines, even those which for decades have proven safe.

The public heath consequences are dire.

Dive Deeper

• A Pew report about "division over whether to get" vaccinated.

• ABC News reports on a poll showing conservatives are skeptical of Covid vaccines

• Brookings showed the impact of party affiliation

• Trump's supporters even turned on him when he admitted getting a booster shot. Here's the video

• The CDC's age-adjusted Covid data is here

• In 2023, Politico reported on their new vaccine-attitude analysis

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On This Day In The Trump Administration: Is it deadly to believe Donald Trump? Covid deaths by state.